Climate adaptation, digital transformation and geopolitical shifts are among the ‘megatrends’ Australia must navigate to thrive in the coming decades.
Around 3.7 million Australians have been accidentally trapped in a sea tear. For the ill-equipped it tends to be a frightening encounter – however for experienced surfers, tears are a helpful method for riding through the whitewash and out to the break.
We’re not surfers, but rather we work at Australia’s public science organization in “essential prescience”, which you can consider the investigation of the flows bringing the world into what’s in store. These flows are a piece like sea tears: they present dangers for the individuals who don’t figure out them, however open doors for social orders, associations and individuals who are ready.
We refer to the greatest flows as “megatrends”, and in another report we look at the megatrends that will shape the following 20 years.
From figuring out how to live in a changing environment and contracting our biological impression to exploring international seismic tremors and the ascent of man-made consciousness, these seven megatrends will change numerous parts of our lives throughout the next few decades.
Our future world
In 2012, CSIRO published a report called Our Future World, which delivered an evidence-based view of future megatrends to allow Australia to take early action in response.
The new report gives an update on where we’re at and where we’re going. It captures the impacts of the pandemic, among other trends and drivers.
Many of the issues we saw as possible or plausible in 2012 are now a lived reality.
Australia, like many other countries, is grappling with flooding, bushfires and extreme heat associated with climate change. Pandemics and infectious diseases, which were a footnote in our earlier writings, have had inescapable impacts in recent times.
What’s more, the worldwide financial rebuilding we talked about quite a while back, for the most part as an open door, has an inexorably significant international aspect. These patterns will have key ramifications for nations like Australia trying to keep up with harmony and dependability.
All in all, what does the future have coming up?
What are the new megatrends?
The first and perhaps most concerning megatrend we identified is “adapting to climate change”. Weather-related hazards are becoming more frequent and more severe, and many communities, industries, and societies are not prepared for what lies ahead.
Heatwaves in Australia could be more than 85% more frequent and last up to a month if global temperatures rise between 1.5°C and 3°C. Building resilience to extreme weather events will be critical over the coming decade.
The second megatrend is what we call “leaner, cleaner, and greener”: innovative solutions to meet the demand for the world’s finite food, water, mineral, and energy resources.
Environmentally friendly power and low-emanations innovations, engineered science, elective proteins and high level reusing all permit us to work inside a lot more tight envelopes. Late gauges propose Australia is on target to create around 50% of its power from renewables by 2025.
Health at risk in a changing world
The third megatrend is “the raising wellbeing basic”: maturing populaces, high paces of ongoing disease, and a pandemic-driven flood in emotional well-being issues are driving an unreasonable development in medical care spending. This spending is supposed to become quicker than GDP in most OECD nations over the approaching 10 years.
Irresistible infection gambles related with pandemics, episodes and antimicrobial medication opposition will lift into what’s to come. There is a critical requirement for advancement in the medical services area to track down ways of accomplishing more with less.
The fourth megatrend is “international movements”: disturbed examples of worldwide exchange, international strains and developing interest in safeguard.
While the worldwide economy contracted by 3.2% in 2020, worldwide military invest arrived at an all-energy high of A$2.9 trillion. This use matches with developing international strains in the Asia-Pacific district.
The third megatrend is “the escalating health imperative”: ageing populations, high rates of chronic illness, and a pandemic-driven surge in mental health issues are driving an unsustainable growth in healthcare spending. This spending is expected to grow faster than GDP in most OECD countries over the coming decade.
Infectious disease risks associated with pandemics, outbreaks and antimicrobial drug resistance will elevate into the future. There is an urgent need for innovation in the healthcare sector to find ways to do more with less.
The fourth megatrend is “geopolitical shifts”: disrupted patterns of global trade, geopolitical tensions and growing investment in defence.
While the global economy shrunk by 3.2% in 2020, global military spend reached an all-time high of A$2.9 trillion. This expenditure coincides with growing geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.
The third megatrend is “the escalating health imperative”: ageing populations, high rates of chronic illness, and a pandemic-driven surge in mental health issues are driving an unsustainable growth in healthcare spending. This spending is expected to grow faster than GDP in most OECD countries over the coming decade.
Infectious disease risks associated with pandemics, outbreaks and antimicrobial drug resistance will elevate into the future. There is an urgent need for innovation in the healthcare sector to find ways to do more with less.
The fourth megatrend is “geopolitical shifts”: disrupted patterns of global trade, geopolitical tensions and growing investment in defence.
While the global economy shrunk by 3.2% in 2020, global military spend reached an all-time high of A$2.9 trillion. This expenditure coincides with growing geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.
At the same time, we have seen increased co-operation between democratic countries, including the recent expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to include Finland and Sweden.
The digital and the human
The fifth megatrend is “plunging into computerized”. While the computerized economy has been developing quickly for quite a while, the pandemic fuelled a blast in teleworking, telehealth, online retail, training and diversion.
Around 40% of Australians currently work somewhat consistently. The advanced labor force is supposed to increment by 79% from 2020 to 2025.
The 6th megatrend we recognized is “progressively independent”. As the abilities of man-made reasoning (AI) have flooded, it has tracked down applications across basically all industry areas.
Man-made intelligence research is taking a developing portion of worldwide innovative work spending and friend checked on research distributions. These advancements are opening up valuable chances to support efficiency and address a portion of mankind’s most noteworthy difficulties.
The final megatrend is “unlocking the human dimension”. Issues relating to trust, transparency and environmental and social governance are of particular importance.
While Australia saw a temporary boost in public trust in institutions in 2021, this trust bubble was short-lived. Societal trust in Australia dropped below the global average yet again in 2022.
The innovation imperative
Our investigation of the present status of worldwide megatrends presents a sobering perspective on the future and the difficulties in front of us. In any case, this information additionally furnishes us with the ability to shape this future, by understanding the sea tears we need to ride or make due.
As we plan ahead for this work at CSIRO, we will zero in on working with industry, government and the scholarly community to handle Australia’s most prominent difficulties. Utilizing these megatrends, we can zero in our science and innovation on the large things that make the biggest difference and make genuine incentive for all Australians.
Stefan Hajkowicz, Senior Principal Scientist, Strategy and Foresight, Data61 and Claire Naughtin, Senior Research Consultant in Strategic Foresight, Data61
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons permit. Peruse the first article.